Market Insights: Q4 2024

Q4 2024 closed a three-year reset phase across most luxury asset classes. After the sharp post-pandemic boom (2020–2022) and subsequent correction, markets are now split into two clear groups:

• Quality, scarce, documented assets – stabilising or quietly re-rating.
• Speculative, over-financialised segments – still working through excess and soft demand.

Key signals:

• Global growth is positive but modest (~3.2% for 2024), with inflation easing yet policy rates still elevated in major economies.
• The Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index (LII) shows a broadly flat to mildly negative 12-month move for passion assets overall, masking strong dispersion between categories (cars and whisky weak; art, wine and handbags relatively resilient).
• Secondary prices for "hype" steel sports watches remain 25–35% below 2022 peaks, but the pace of declines has slowed and liquidity has normalised at more realistic levels.
• Global art sales have cooled from 2021–2022 highs, with 2023 volumes down low-single digits and a further mid-teens retreat in 2024 as sellers and buyers adjust to higher rates.
• Prime and super-prime property is bifurcated: some mature cities are flat, while UHNW demand pushed 2024 super-prime residential sales (US$10m+) up 7% year-on-year, with a sharp 30% surge in Q4 alone.
• Gold set fresh record highs above US$2,400/oz in 2024 on the back of continued central bank accumulation and geopolitical tension.

For ELITA clients, the message is straightforward: the speculative phase is over – but the long-term thesis for best-in-class assets remains intact. Selectivity, documentation and holding period matter more than ever.

By Q4 2024, major central banks were signalling that policy rates were near their peak after the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades. The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate in the 5.25–5.50% range while markets began to price cuts for 2025 as inflation eased closer to target.

For collectors and private offices, this environment has three practical consequences:

1. Cash has a meaningful yield again. The opportunity cost of holding low-yielding or non-income-producing assets is higher than it was in 2020–2021.
2. Leverage is more expensive. Financing collections, yachts or aircraft demands clearer cash-flow planning and stronger collateral.
3. Risk assets are being repriced, not abandoned. Equity markets remain broadly constructive; what has changed is the premium paid for speculative growth and illiquid trophies.

In short: Q4 2024 rewarded disciplined buyers with capital ready for negotiated opportunities, rather than momentum-driven trading.

The watch market is the clearest example of a boom-and-bust cycle maturing into a more rational phase.

• Indices tracking key models from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet show secondary prices still roughly a third below their 2022 peaks, but the sharp monthly declines of 2023 have largely faded.
• Knight Frank's LII records a modest 12-month decline for watches, even as ten-year performance remains strongly positive, underlining how elevated the starting point was.

Where we see strength:

• Complicated pieces (perpetual calendars, minute repeaters, chiming watches) from top houses with full documentation.
• Independent watchmakers with authentic scarcity and clear wait-lists, not those driven purely by social media attention.
• Vintage references with proven provenance and original condition.

Where we remain cautious:

• Recently produced steel sports models that were bid up to extreme multiples of retail.
• Pieces with aftermarket customisation or incomplete service records.

For Q4 2024 and into 2025, ELITA's stance is that this is a buyer's market for quality, not a recovery trade for anything with a logo. Structured acquisitions at or below long-term fair value are achievable for patient mandates.

High jewellery and superlative stones sit somewhere between the watch and art markets: less transparent than watches, less cyclical than trophy art.

Long-term data on coloured diamonds shows outperformance versus many other passion assets over the past decade, reflecting their extreme scarcity. At the same time, softer demand in parts of the broader diamond market – especially for commercial-grade stones – has widened the gap between the "best" and the "rest".

Q4 2024 themes we see across desks:

• Superlative, certified stones (Fancy Vivid, Fancy Intense, D–F Type IIa, important rubies and emeralds) remain highly contested privately, even as auction results show selectivity.
• High jewellery from maisons such as Harry Winston, Graff, Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Bulgari continues to carry brand premium when accompanied by original paperwork and recent lab reports.
• Mid-tier pieces without strong design, provenance or certification are trading on price, not narrative.

For private offices, the strategic use of gems and high jewellery is shifting from "discretionary spend" to small, high-conviction positions that concentrate in rare colours, important sizes and iconic designs.

After a long bull run, collector cars entered correction territory in 2023. Knight Frank data shows classic cars among the weaker performers in the LII basket over the most recent 12-month period, following years of outsized gains.

By Q4 2024:

• Blue-chip modern and classic models (halo Ferraris, homologation specials, early Pagani, key Porsche RS/GT references) remain relatively well bid when low mileage and documentation align.
• More generic "spec-built" supercars and high-miles examples are seeing extended selling times and sharper negotiation.
• Regulatory uncertainty (emissions, city access) is pushing some collectors towards fewer, better cars rather than broader fleets.

We view 2024–2025 as a period where due diligence and independent inspection determine outcome. The market is rewarding originality, matching-numbers cars and clear history, punishing anything with story risk.

The global art market has cooled from pandemic-era highs:

• The Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report notes that global sales slipped in 2023 as rising rates and economic uncertainty weighed on high-end demand.
• Coverage of the 2025 report indicates a further c.12% fall in global sales value for 2024, with weakness concentrated at the very top (US$10m+ lots) while middle-market activity proved more resilient.

For ELITA clients, this translates into:

• Super-trophy works seeing fewer aggressive bidding wars; sellers have to be realistic on pricing.
• Strong demand persisting for museum-quality pieces in the US$1–5m range with impeccable provenance, especially by established names such as Picasso, Warhol, Basquiat, Richter and others in the blue-chip canon.
• Growing institutional and private interest in under-researched segments (female modernists, non-Western contemporary artists), but with more rigorous curatorial filters.

The environment favours quiet acquisitions negotiated off-market or via targeted sale strategies rather than headline-chasing.

Gold's breakout to fresh record highs above US$2,400/oz in 2024 was driven by a combination of:

• Continued central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets.
• Geopolitical risk and conflict.
• Anticipation of eventual rate cuts improving the relative attractiveness of non-yielding gold.

For ELITA's desk, this has translated into increased client interest in allocated, vaulted bullion as a balance-sheet stabiliser – typically representing 5–15% of a passion-asset sleeve.

Physical gold and silver in reviewed storage pathways offers liquidity far superior to most collectables and acts as a counterweight to market-sensitive pieces (watches, cars, art) during risk-off episodes.

The Q4 2024 environment calls for a disciplined, long-horizon approach:

1. Quality concentration – fewer, better pieces rather than broader but shallower holdings.
2. Documentation discipline – every asset should be fully papered, insured and ready for collateralisation or exit.
3. Liquidity planning – understand exit routes before entry; maintain some allocation to liquid hedges (bullion, cash).
4. Selective opportunism – distressed sellers exist in the current environment; be ready to move when quality surfaces below fair value.

The Private Desk remains open for mandate discussions, portfolio reviews and specific sourcing briefs across all asset classes covered in this report.